"Sure-Win" Strategy

Can you predict the outcome of sports such as horse racing? I do not investigate in sports details as I think I have better things to do. But if I am invited to horse-racing functions, I would make my presence interesting by deploying the no-brainer "sure-win" strategy to see if it is verified or falsified again.

The "sure-win" strategy is just to bet on every horse, in a right race, to "Win". A right race to probably beat the odds is one where at least half of the horses having "Win" payoffs to make betting on all horses to "Win" profitable. Eg, if the total bet in a 10-horse field to "Win" is HK$100, at least five horses should have "Win" payoffs larger than HK$100.

If there is no early success story to tell, one might lose confidence in the strategy. If there is early proof of concept and betting continues, probable non-profitable payoffs to follow might lessen the profit or incur loss. Even if the overall winning is marginally profitable, some may think that not taking high risks is no fun at all.

I practise the "sure-win" strategy as an occasional experiment on mathematical probability. I have learned from my early success stories and subsequent failures that no one can win all the time. It is a fact of life that we win some and we lose some, and without losing, we would not appreciate why winning is great!

#SureWinStrategy